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Forum:2013 North Indian Ocean cyclone season/Phailin
04B.PHAILIN AOI: Eastern BOB This invest is noted by JTWC... medium chance currently. Many models showing it developing while it slowly crawls away from the Thai coast and towards the Indian coast. Currently, it is setting sights on landfall near Kolkatta. 20-25kt/1004 mb at last JTWC update I think that this has a pretty good chance to develop, SSTs are good as well as low to moderate wind shear. Fred22 (talk) 23:35, October 7, 2013 (UTC) EDIT: Not sure if this would still be considered 90W as it has been moved into a new basin? :A lot of model support for this one to become something big... Yqt1001 (talk) 12:31, October 8, 2013 (UTC) Depression BOB 04 Uh oh, looks like the NIO's going back to their old deadly habits again...the current forecasts from the global models (GFS and Euro) take this to becoming a horribly strong major hurricane crashing into India in 4 or 5 days...I think this is going to be a historic storm possibly killing hundreds or thousands of people. India better have evacuation plans for this one...now. Here comes Cyclone Phailin.Ryan1000 20:26, October 8, 2013 (UTC) :Well, let's hope that when it forms, Cyclone Phailin starts, um, failin'. (Have mercy on me, I couldn't resist...) --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:40, October 8, 2013 (UTC) :::XD Dylan, I see what you did there. But despite it's name, it'd be hard for me to see this one phailing. It's a pretty grim scenario for India if the current global model forecasts pan out to be true... Ryan1000 20:51, October 8, 2013 (UTC) :::Many models have it peaked at cat 3 or 4 so India better watched out.I believe though they are more prepare though than before,and to be honest I prefer India than Bangladesh or Myanmar.Allanjeffs 21:00, October 8, 2013 (UTC) ::::I have an idea! Let's take the impending Indian monster and push it somewhere else! Like somewhere in the Atlantic or EPAC way out to sea! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:05, October 8, 2013 (UTC) :::::India should be well prepared for this storm. Speaking of which, a TCFA has been issued by the JTWC. AndrewTalk To Me 21:17, October 8, 2013 (UTC) :::::::I wish we could Dylan...I just wish we could. And well Allan, India is getting pretty prepared for storms but that doesn't mean that they can't be deadly, knowing how populated they are, it's pretty tough to get 100% of the people out of harm's way. Bangladesh and Myanmar are more vulnerable in some places, but they've been getting more prepared recently too. Everyone in the NIO needs all the help they can get to be safe from powerful cyclones. Ryan1000 22:03, October 8, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Yeah Dylan, I wish we could do that (but it's impossible). This storm could become pretty deadly if it hits India or Bangladesh as a very strong cyclone. Let's all hope Phailin starts failin' :D [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 00:00, October 9, 2013 (UTC) :::::::For the record, this depression begun out in the WPAC, and I commented on it here. Should we move the discussion there or keep it here (With Pewa, Unala, and TD 3C, we kept the discussion on the CPAC forum, maybe we should move this there?). AndrewTalk To Me 02:18, October 9, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::I think it should be kept here. It didn't technically become a tropical cyclone until it reached the NIO, whereas Pewa, Unala, and Three-C all became TCs east of the dateline. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:22, October 9, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::EDIT: Wait, I didn't do my homework, I just saw now that there was indeed a depression in the WPAC. Still, keep it here anyway, since its NIO impacts are expected to be far greater than what it achieved in the WPAC. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:35, October 9, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::Dylan, it was a depression in the WPac, but it was never assigned a number by the JTWC, it was only "JMA Tropical Depression" by the JMA in the WPac. If it was numbered 24W, then it would've stayed on the WPac page. Ryan1000 04:05, October 9, 2013 (UTC) Deep Depression BOB 04 Yikes, this depression is really taking off. It is at 30 knots (35 mph) (3-minute sustained winds)/1002 mbar (29.59 inHg) per the IMD and 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds). Per the JTWC, our first NIO Category 1 tropical cyclone since Thane is in the making... AndrewTalk To Me 11:39, October 9, 2013 (UTC) : Latest IMD forecast brings it up to 90 mph when making landfall in India, though the global models suggest otherwise. This could get really ugly in the coming days. Ryan1000 12:41, October 9, 2013 (UTC) Cyclonic Storm Phailin Named and it appears to be rapidly intensifying at the moment. Probably nearing 65kts 1-min. Should become a Severe Cyclonic Storm soon. Yqt1001 (talk) 20:07, October 9, 2013 (UTC) :That's not good, and neither is this... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:39, October 9, 2013 (UTC) :::Uh oh, Phailin is not Failin, and that's defying 2013's logic! Impossible! Well, hopefully India gets everyone out of harm's way. Ryan1000 00:16, October 10, 2013 (UTC) ::::o_o --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:46, October 10, 2013 (UTC) ::::When we want a storm to fail it doesn`t fail when we want a storm to strength it does not strength I hate 2013 logic.Poor India.I believe this storm name will be retire at the rate is going.Hope India prepares.Allanjeffs 01:57, October 10, 2013 (UTC) :::::Names aren't retired in the NIO basin, Allan. Each time a list is exhausted, a new one is drawn up. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:07, October 10, 2013 (UTC) :::::Edit Conflict!!! Anyway, Phailin is definitely not something to laugh about if your in India. Simlover123' ' 02:17, October 10, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Wow sorry Simlover, usually I'm on the receiving end of that lol. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:41, October 10, 2013 (UTC) ::::::LOL. The silly stuff that can happen sometimes. Including the boring 2013 tropical cyclone year. Simlover123' ' 03:13, October 10, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Saw this posted in comment #652 here: 2013OCT10 043000 5.0 968.2 90.0 5.0 5.0 4.3 MW ON. This continues to get very ugly, very fast... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 05:29, October 10, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Should be a cat 3 not a 55knots ts the Indian organization is really conservative and its a shame with so many lives in risk.At the rate is going this will become a cat 5 or 4 before landfall is going to move into a region with even warmer waters.Allanjeffs 05:56, October 10, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Take a look at this it looks''' alot''' more intense than only cat. 1. Fred22 (talk) 11:43, October 10, 2013 (UTC) Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin Both IMD and JTWC have this at 65kts. To me though, Phailin looks to be a very strong category 4. Nonetheless, the conditions in front of this are amazing, the only hope we have is an EWRC to keep this from category 5 at landfall I think. Yqt1001 (talk) 13:42, October 10, 2013 (UTC) : Latest forecast from the JTWC brings this monster to 155 mph but weakening to 125 mph when it makes landfall in India, but given the shape of this thing and it's tiny, tightly-wound circulation, it could easily become a category 5 super cyclonic storm before landfall in India. They better hope this storm undergoes an ERC before landfall or this storm could get to unimaginable strengths and cause god knows how much damage. Ryan1000 17:19, October 10, 2013 (UTC) ::Per comment #295 here: 2013OCT10 200000 7.4 910.7 152.0 7.4 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF. This might just be the strongest NIO cyclone in recorded history... in any event, the JTWC has upgraded Phailin to a 125-knot Category 4 on the SSHWS. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:52, October 10, 2013 (UTC) ::::910 mbar and 175 mph winds? That's a category 5 cyclone. This storm looks so similar to Gonu of 2007 on sattelite imagery, the two look almost identical to each other, except this one has winds at least 15 mph higher, and a pressure at least 10 mbar lower. Worse, it's continuing to explode rapidly and if it doesn't undergo an ERC it might even hit 185-190 mph when it roars ashore in India. Ryan1000 22:11, October 10, 2013 (UTC) ::::One word to describe this storm.Stunning looks so good the most beautiful storm of the year.Allanjeffs 22:34, October 10, 2013 (UTC) :::::Wow, this has really strengthened to something very intense. It looks like a very beautiful storm on satellite imagery, and it is currently a big monster storm threatening India. Stay tuned everyone. Phailin could become very devastating once it strikes the country, and it has an outside shot for Super Cyclonic Storm strength, a strength very few storms achieve. It is really breaking 2013's logic. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 22:56, October 10, 2013 (UTC) :::::This has to 'have become a Super Cyclonic Storm. Anyone wanna explain this? This is bad, real bad. Fred22 (talk) 23:07, October 10, 2013 (UTC) ::::::898 mbar?! Dafuq? If that pressure estimate is accurate, then Phailin is the strongest tropical cyclone worldwide since Megi 3 years ago... --'Dylan (Hurricane 99) 23:16, October 10, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::It would also make it the strongest in the basin. But it's definetly not 966 mb. Fred22 (talk) 23:27, October 10, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::Cat 5 per JTWC now. No way this is just VSCS. 185 mph 1 min. This could very well get into the top 3 most intense in the basin. Fred22 (talk) 23:57, October 10, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Source? JTWC still has it at 125kts. It's likely to be 140kts at the next update though. Yqt1001 (talk) 00:05, October 11, 2013 (UTC) :This is insane. As far as I know, Phailin is at 125 knots (145 mph) per the JTWC and at 90 knots (105 mph) per the IMD. The last cyclone before Phailin to get this high was Giri. We could see an unwritten cyclone soon... AndrewTalk To Me 00:37, October 11, 2013 (UTC) ::It's up to 135kts and 922mb per JTWC: 02B PHAILIN 131011 0000 15.8N 88.8E IO 135 922 - IMD refuses to go above 90kts 3-min and 963mb for some reason. Yqt1001 (talk) 00:38, October 11, 2013 (UTC) ::::I can't believe this isn't a category 5 storm yet. If this isn't a category 5 cyclone I don't know what is. This'll probably be a super cyclonic storm tomorrow by IMD. The storm exploded just recently, it'll probably take 12 hours for the full intensity to be confirmed. Ryan1000 00:52, October 11, 2013 (UTC) :::::Earlier on, the IMD seemed pretty certain that Phailin wouldn't become a super cyclonic storm... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 00:54, October 11, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Looks like mother nature might just make (or already made) the IMD eat their words. Ryan1000 00:57, October 11, 2013 (UTC) :::::::They had failed with this storm and they continue to fail with it but what can I say from the most conservative organization of the 7 or 8 they are worldwide.Allanjeffs 01:18, October 11, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::The JTWC is now predicting a peak intensity of 145 kts... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:51, October 11, 2013 (UTC) EWRC has started! Not looking as good as it was earlier today...I wouldn't be surprised if it was 150kts earlier while the JTWC was struggling to keep their Dvorak under control. Nonetheless, it should have enough time to restrengthen before landfall once this EWRC finishes. Not good. Yqt1001 (talk) 04:09, October 11, 2013 (UTC) :EWRC hasn't done much. In fact, it's strengthened quite a bit. It's looking like a solid category 5 and JTWC has it 140kts. Not sure what's going on in it's core, there hasn't been an MW pass since I made the above post. IMD has it up to 110kts and 940mb. At this rate if it ever does become a super cyclone, it will be one by morning in India just for landfall. Yqt1001 (talk) 15:30, October 11, 2013 (UTC) ::No wait there was and still is an EWRC. The eye only slightly increased in size so far, but the old one did collapse and a new one has redeveloped within about 6 hours, strengthening during it! This storm is a beast! Yqt1001 (talk) 15:35, October 11, 2013 (UTC) ::::It's still not a super cyclonic storm by IMD standards, but with 160 mph winds, and continuing to intensify, it could easily be classified as one soon enough. Looks like Brahmapur, which has 355,000 people, will be receiving the brunt of the storm. The 1999 storm made landfall further north, in a lower-lying, more populated part of Odisha (Orissa), home to nearly 41 million people. Phailin will be making landfall further south in a less populated area, but the damage could still be massive. Ryan1000 15:50, October 11, 2013 (UTC) :::::What the hell kind of storm strengthens during an EWRC?!? Dvorak T# is at 7.3, which equates to 886.6 mbar and 149 kts. God help those poor people... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 19:54, October 11, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Dylan, the kind of storm that strengthens in an ERC is the kind of storm that doesn't care about what mother nature's rules are. =/ Take ATL's Chris or Michael of 2012 for example, intensifying in otherwise non-ideal conditions, or Debby for her movement. That being said, that could make Phailin much worse for India. A category 5 landfall in India spells curtains for them, the only other landfalling cat 5 in India was Cyclone Gay of 1989, although the 1999, 1990, and 1977 cyclones in India were awfully devastating category 4's. Ryan1000 21:44, October 11, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::For the record, Phailin, contrary to its name, is now the first Category 5 tropical cyclone in the NIO since Sidr in 2007, and it is at 105 knots (120 mph, 205 km/h) (3-minute sustained winds)/938 mbar (hPa; 27.70 inHg) per the IMD. The northern Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts are now under a cyclone warning, which needs to be taken seriously. Also, for reference, Phailin is the tenth strongest NIO cyclone on record in terms of pressure (and the the third strongest named storm, after Gay '89 and Gonu '07). AndrewTalk To Me 22:04, October 11, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::Seriously, if this isn't a super cyclone, I don't know what is. Also,link. Fred22 (talk) 22:32, October 11, 2013 (UTC) The IMD has seriously been underestimating this storm and the potential for how strong it may be. For all intents and purposes, this is a super cyclonic storm. It's already at least 160 mph, continuing to organize, and may be the worst tropical cyclone worldwide in 2013. Ryan1000 01:43, October 12, 2013 (UTC) :::::::::Why has the IMD not dubbbed this a super cyclonic storm? It is very well-defined on satellite imagery. Anyway, Phailin's pressure has dropped to 936 mbar (hPa) and it is forecast to slam into a rural area of India, driving a ten-foot storm surge. Fatalities should not be as high as the Odissa cyclone of 1999. Nevertheless, preparations should be rushed to completion. AndrewTalk To Me 02:17, October 12, 2013 (UTC) :::::::::How is this not a super cyclonic storm?! It looks very great on satellite imagery, and it also has a very well defined eye. I really, really hope India is prepared for this huge monster storm, as it could cause as much as a thousand deaths. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if the deaths toll becomes almost as high as the 1999 cyclone. This could really become very devastating. Stay tuned, for this potentially historic event. This could easily cause more than a thousand deaths! :o [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 03:26, October 12, 2013 (UTC) Phailin (which is Thai for sapphire) did briefly become the first NIO super cyclone since Gonu '07 last night (It never did.). It is once again a very severe cyclonic storm, packing the same intensity as before. Already, $33 million (2013 USD) in damage and one fatality has been inflicted from Phailin, and it has not even made landfall yet in India! AndrewTalk To Me 12:10, October 12, 2013 (UTC) :And we have landfall, probably somewhere around 120 kts (1-min). Andrew, someone mistakenly corrected Phailin to super cyclonic storm intensity last night on Wikipedia, thinking it was based on 1-min winds instead of 3-min, and I'm not aware of any IMD advisories where they made the upgrade. I should mention now that we have been mispronouncing the name "Phailin," which actually doesn't rhyme with "failin'." It's actually pronounced "Pi Lin"... so you could say that Phailin keeps pilin' that storm surge onto the Indian coastline. Thank goodness it pulled an Allen and weakened greatly before landfall, though it will still cause crippling impacts. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 13:54, October 12, 2013 (UTC) :When I saw a satellite image of Phailin yesterday, I thought it looked sort of like Typhoon Tip (1979). That's not good, what is good is that this storm is weakening hopefully it continues to weaken, because I DO NOT want to hear anything about death and destruction. I'm hoping those in India are taking this monster seriously. Stay safe. hoping India is taking the cyclone seriously (talk) 14:30, October 12, 2013 (UTC) ::Phailin is about to make landfall in India, and this storm could become very deadly and have crippling impacts. Stay tuned. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 20:41, October 12, 2013 (UTC) ::::Phailin weakened much faster than I thought it would, it's now down to 115 mph, but India is taking a beating from this nonetheless. Furthermore, Nari has killed at least 13 in the Philipines. Ryan1000 00:38, October 13, 2013 (UTC) :::::The JTWC has written off Phailin. Meanwhile, the cyclone's death toll is now at seven. AndrewTalk To Me 03:16, October 13, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Phailin caused at least 33 million in damage and Phailin is starting to die out. Heavy inland flooding is still a major concern though, and it might have caused much more than 7 deaths. Ryan1000 11:10, October 13, 2013 (UTC) Cyclonic Storm Phailin (2nd time) Wow. In just one evening, Phailin went from one of the strongest NIO cyclones on record to a 40 knot (45 mph, 75 km/h) (3-minute sustained winds), 988 mbar (hPa: 29.18 inHg) cyclonic storm. The cyclone's death toll has risen to 14 and should continue doing so in the coming days. AndrewTalk To Me 13:38, October 13, 2013 (UTC) :It's well inland, so rapid weakening is to be expected :P --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:09, October 13, 2013 (UTC) :The death toll is as of now 14 but compare to 1999 this is a big win to India mass evacuations,now if only Bangladesh and Myanmar can start doing the same.Allanjeffs 18:11, October 13, 2013 (UTC) ::At least Phailin isn't looking as bad as I expected. But still, the deaths toll could climb higher, and it wouldn't surprise me if Phailin causes 50+ deaths after all is said and done. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 22:39, October 13, 2013 (UTC) :::I'll take 50+ deaths instead of over 9,000 any day. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:31, October 13, 2013 (UTC) Remnants of Phailin Well, since the IMD has issued its final bulletin on Phailin hours ago, I can safely assume the monster "sapphire" is dead. Hopefully, not too many die over in India. AndrewTalk To Me 23:32, October 13, 2013 (UTC) :Phailin's death toll has risen to 36. Assuming nothing much more happens, I need to praise India's government. The largest evacuation in almost a quarter of a century saved hundreds of thousands of lives. This is a big improvement from previous cyclones, such as the Odissa cyclone, Sidr, and even Mahasen to some extent. AndrewTalk To Me 11:37, October 15, 2013 (UTC)